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P. Garcia Department of Economics - PUC-Rio www.econ.puc-rio.br/mgarcia mgarcia@econ.puc-rio.br AEA Poster Session Atlanta  January, 2019 tl P P PWv"        7RSj 9  F@@/?Text Box 5 ~vn___PPT9PH =MI thank Rogrio Werneck, Eduardo Loyo, Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, Samuel Pessoa, Alexandre Schwartsman, Mario Mesquita, Armnio Fraga, Afonso Bevilaqua, Luis Cato, Ricardo Velloso, Marcos Chamon, Irineu de Carvalho, Otaviano Canuto, Lucio Sarno, Gustavo Loyola, Fabio Giambiagi, Jonathan Ostry, Diogo Guillen, Pedro Maia, Nicholas Hope, Ilan Goldfajn, Edmar Bacha, Affonso Pastore, Jos Jlio Sena, Kevin Cowan and Marcelo de Paiva Abreu for many helpful comments, as well as Beatriz Ribeiro, Felipe Maia, Lucas Maynard and Rafael Fonseca for excellent research assistance. All errors are mine.RN |  l  3:     ? 33y___PPT10Y+D=' = @B +"#: @8` (  7   xp/0e0e?Rectangle 2   k1. Introduction (1/4)   ?   ~0p/0e0e?Rectangle 3"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!R%drs/downrev.xmlDn0DVVhAh!K6#@=fFou.伲Fd#SYL-,s`>ZCZ-0jrB" 4!tjHێLNi 1K-&3רL|huCմ[^MG_|?7BW`?6_Իi?9@N@QPK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!R%drs/downrev.xmlPK<H$o+   Given the abundant liquidity prevailing in international financial markets, together with the good prospects of many emerging markets, capital has flown very intensely to these economies from 2003 to 2011. Several emerging markets have adopted inflation targeting (IT) as their monetary regime. Although the IT framework prescribes a free floating exchange rate, the real exchange rate appreciation associated with capital inflows is considered very detrimental to long term growth, with the specter of Dutch disease being often brandished. Another concern is that capital flows may fuel credit bubbles, jeopardizing not only inflation control, but also financial stability. According to the Central Bank of Brazil:  & the fragility in some mature economies, combined with favorable perspectives for the Brazilian economy, has determined an inflow of foreign resources, part of which has been going to the credit market. In this sense, the excess of external inflows may weak (sic) the credit channel, smooth its contribution to the aggregate demand moderation, as well as cause distortions in the price of domestic assets (Central Bank of Brazil, 2011). x Y# ? 33,$___PPT10.+qqD' = @B D_' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*'D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*'%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*'D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*'%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(+8+0+ +"X: 2* (   7   xp/0e0e?Rectangle 2   k1. Introduction (2/4)   ?    ~p/0e0e?Rectangle 3"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!WԬwdrs/downrev.xmlDAO1&fLIV ,b4mtX6&Mj8Ʊ(A\;mQwS!"k X-XhwN؈P6ƾ2-Y #ŘNHඓ,{ {zn^3;[q3TǏno9HCƴ/Eky~?}8]C$ &ݤ rPK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!WԬwdrs/downrev.xmlPKjH$o+  The Central Bank of Chile warned:  & the main risks for financial stability associated with larger gross capital inflows include the generation of currency and maturity mismatches, credit booms that lead to a deterioration in loan quality, and local asset price misalignment (Central Bank of Chile, 2011). The Central Bank of Turkey admonished:  & in emerging economies, short-term capital flows and rapid credit growth feed macro financial risks. & . The major risk factor for emerging economies is the macroeconomic imbalances driven by rapid capital inflows. Central banks of emerging economies continued to implement macroprudential measures to contain the potential adverse effects of capital flows (Central Bank of Turkey, 2011). Several forms of intervention in the exchange rate markets have been tried as extra tools to bypass the open economy trilemma and mitigate real exchange rate appreciation. The most frequently used forms of intervention are sterilized foreign exchange (FX) purchases and controls on capital inflows.X #LcN ? 33___PPT10~.+qqD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<* 4D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* 4%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<* 4D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* 4%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<* D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* %(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<* D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<* %(+8+0+  +"u': ( (  (7 (  xp/0e0e?Rectangle 2   k1. Introduction (3/4)   ?  (  ~pp/0e0e?Rectangle 3"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!drdrs/downrev.xmlDN0DHHܨP u Tizᶍ!#iSG3zXc'A;+`:ɀmԶ7ws`!9K.`Z`!VtŖ%  P1Qd0L\O6uG }˥sϲ6=(EQ2XBތg`?^ږ/~0v^^ C$/ &ݤ |PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!drdrs/downrev.xmlPKk$o+ ___PPT9d\ The literature on sterilized interventions is focused on its effectiveness in affecting the exchange rate, mainly via two effects: Portfolio balance effect; Signaling effect. There is a very large empirical literature on FX Intervention, e.g., Dominguez and Frankel (1993). Sarno and Taylor (2001) survey early literature (mainly advanced economies); evidence not supportive (intervention is small when compared to size of bond markets). Menkhoff (2013) provides a more recent survey covering Emerging Markets, where evidence is more supportive (intervention can be sizable relative to domestic bond markets). The support for the effectiveness of sterilized FX interventions to affect the exchange rate is not strong.v,     +$$((,,004488+<<%#   %   $$$n((,, 00          +      +  %  #   %     $    _  33___PPT10.+ڳDP' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D* ' =%(D' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*(bD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(b%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*(bD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*(b%(+8+0+( +": 2 * 0 (  07 0  x@p/0e0e?Rectangle 2   k1. Introduction (3/4)   ? 0  ~p/0e0e?Rectangle 3"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK! ,wdrs/downrev.xmlDN0DHH\u*n@rAJ mM 68q47z`;qw ƣ kjy=;Rp 폮Ú .e )cݒ8=|)Fdٝh\zh*ؚ%˜߆siqE<ގA^O`t)(HI7PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-! ,wdrs/downrev.xmlPKk$o+ RJ___PPT9,$ XRecently, general equilibrium models have been developed, mostly in the DSGE tradition: Kumhof (2010), Benes et al. (2015), Devereux and Yetman (2014) and Cavallino (2016). Apart from its possible effect on the real exchange rate, sterilized FX purchases are commonly taken as neutral from the point of view of its effects over aggregate demand. A recent exception is Blanchard et al. (2015), to be presented this afternoon. To illustrate this point, imagine an open economy with unemployment at NAIRU, GDP growth at the normal rate, real interest rate at the neutral rate and inflation rate at the inflation rate target. Submit such economy to a shock of massive and continued capital inflow.N H  0    33,$___PPT10.+qqD' = @B D_' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*0D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*0%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*0ZD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*0Z%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*0ZD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*0Z%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*0oD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*0o%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*0oD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*0o%(+8+0+0 +": v n 8V (  87 8  xpp/0e0e?Rectangle 2   k1. Introduction (4/4)   ?  8  ~p/0e0e?Rectangle 3"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!mdrs/downrev.xmlDN1E&CLH!Fr{L3i;i | ]ܛssN7D+k 02T6a4kHNF`)DU~PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!mdrs/downrev.xmlPKH$o+  The inflation targeting monetary policy maker decides to fully sterilize the capital inflows. Under the inflation targeting framework, this means purchasing all the FX inflow with domestic currency, thereby lowering the nominal interest rate and expanding the quantity of money. Simultaneously, the CB conducts contractionary open market operations to soak up the liquidity which it had created with the FX purchase, which means it sterilizes the monetary effect of the FX purchase. Under IT, such contractionary open market operations will only cease when the previous nominal interest rate is restored. Are such sterilized interventions under inflation targeting expansionary? Do they affect the output gap? 6 ]i  33___PPT10~.+qqD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*8D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*8%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*8D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*8%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*8]D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*8]%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*8]D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*8]%(+8+0+8 +"+: @(  @( @  xҰ*0e0e?Rectangle 2   \Agenda 0 ?} @  ~p/0e0e?Rectangle 3"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!I,drs/downrev.xmlDn0D֭Į8>!,_ClG __v9٢ ye0FRJB ppt_c='`B@BPB<*@D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*@%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*@D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*@%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*@D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*@%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*@D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*@%(+8+0+@ +":   H (  H H  x5*0e0e?Rectangle 2   |2. Effects of sterilized interventions in a static model with a banking sector and 2 financial assets, bonds and loans (1/6)$} z} ? H  ~5*0e0e?Rectangle 3"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!דdrs/downrev.xmlDN0Ew$zHli**CƯ!#mSƫ{ul1(FqRV^LVb, 8Sbt'[ұ-K b C`l)K7d=7mzPRQUl_2f?B\_ O" EJy~;ۯ;e!nR>PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!דdrs/downrev.xmlPKiH$o+  hIn the standard definition, the sterilized FX purchase does not affect the monetary base; it merely exchanges foreign assets for domestic assets (government bonds). However, in a inflation-targeting (IT) framework, this is not quite the way in which sterilization takes place. In the second stage, when the CB exchanges for bonds the money it had issued to buy the dollars, it will keep selling bonds until the point in which the interest rate set by the MPC is restored, which not necessarily asserts the repurchase of all the money that had been issued. If aggregate demand has expanded, and with it, the demand for money, the interest rate will be reestablished before all the money that had been issued is withdrawn. In other words, sterilization as it is usually conducted by central banks, keeping unaltered the interest rate, may actually expand the money stock. *g gi  33___PPT10~.+qqD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*HD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*H%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*H,D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*H,%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*H,D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*H,%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*HgD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*Hg%(+8+0+H +": mnen@PMn(  P P  x5*0e0e?Rectangle 2   |2. Effects of sterilized interventions in a static model with a banking sector and 2 financial assets, bonds and loans (2/6):} t} ?y  P  ~5*0e0e?Rectangle 3"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!!jdrs/downrev.xmlDN0EH5HӆG u+* Rn#mS,չ:`;q cQvp`]- BD9&' Ͱ%V ¡@m}!e[F'Ny1EHඓ, {zjZ^2{P}7J]^  " q͝+QoZA_Oo v7+HI7PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!!jdrs/downrev.xmlPKH$Do+  Why would aggregate demand increase because of sterilized FX purchases? To answer that question, I resort to a simple macroeconomic model with a banking sector, akin to the one developed by Bernanke and Blinder ( Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand , AER, Maio,1988), henceforth the BB model. This is a modified IS-LM model, where there is a banking sector (call it the bank) that allocates its portfolio between bank reserves (required and excess), loans and bonds, and take deposits (money). The bank allocates its asset portfolio according to two rates i, the interest rate, and r, the loan rate. 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=4BBB@B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*P"B%(D' =4BBB@B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*PBX%(+":  ll`Xl(  X X  xE0e0e?Rectangle 2   |2. Effects of sterilized interventions in a static model with a banking sector and 2 financial assets, bonds and loans (3/6):} t} ?0 X  ~E0e0e?Rectangle 3"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Pdrs/downrev.xmlDn0DV8}UR%$؎l]ftFg2tN伲F#SZL%`S,|@#\lڻ`&tZE Ch3}YF߷-bt>LרL|EMa}jk^'eބxuVխC}Ji4~}\N} ' Fݨ | PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPKH$Do+  G#Suppose there is an inflow of foreign capital, such as a foreign loan to the bank. The CB purchases all of the inflow at the prevailing exchange rate and issues the equivalent amount in domestic currency to the bank. The foreign loan is an additional source of funds for the bank to increase its asset portfolio. After the FX sterilized purchase, here is the new bank balance sheet. The entire FL has been placed in government bonds. 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Effects of sterilized interventions in a static model with a banking sector and 2 financial assets, bonds and loans (4/6).} y} ? `  ~E0e0e?Rectangle 3"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Xzdrs/downrev.xmlDQO0M%M:9)hPymvY/[am';AwD+kL' 0246&5$BsiϦS!( 9uKdbNc5\:    332*___PPT10 .+YD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4BBB@B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*`%(D' =%(D' =%(D' =4BBB@B%(D' =,54*3>!.='<*`D' =4BBB@B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*`%(D' =%(D' =%(D' =4BBB@B%(D' =,54*3>!.='<*`D' =4BBB@B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*`%(D' =%(D' =%(D' =4BBB@B%(D' =,54*3>!.='<*`D' =4BBB@B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*`%(+": . & h (  h h  rE0e0e?Ttulo 1q   |2. Effects of sterilized interventions in a static model with a banking sector and 2 financial assets, bonds and loans (5/6)}}| : h  E0e0e?BEspao Reservado para Contedo 2"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!LG$drs/downrev.xmlDK0p_Ku."HEܵeML >7_=ZVp;@WV\+^or!"k,3X../Xh;mEp(PA+ UC:7S7˲iРdLx\{r}?Y+u}5>?4G_z f ˷z!WܒiPK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!LG$drs/downrev.xmlPK  `H$Do+  -The new equilibrium is reached when the bank completes its portfolio reallocation. At the new equilibrium there will be higher aggregate demand, a higher quantity of money, lower loan rate and higher quantity of loans at the same interest rate. The timing to arrive at the new equilibrium has to do with how fast banks reallocate their portfolios after the sterilized intervention, not with the few minutes the CB takes to perform a FX sterilized purchase. 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The high correlation between both series emerge from the fact that the rate on loans is usually fixed based upon the banks cost of funding or interbank rate, which varies with the one-year-interbank rate. Note that in the beginning of 2010 the high correlation is broken: while the interbank rate has its direction reversed and starts to rise (because the CB was expected to raise the Selic rate), the loan rate keeps falling, as asserted by the model. 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.ݐkK{"{[F׋h=+M ĭז;m "&dgRp+i:M8V4TR֐8q}p:(C9@kCaSݤrzo_nsMyTf2>>H4Vg(n2\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!\drs/downrev.xmlPKVPV 8B   c $1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!\drs/downrev.xmlDAO0 Hȓt;@UMhh* .ݐkK{"{[F׋h=+M ĭז;m "&dgRp+i:M8V4TR֐8q}p:(C9@kCaSݤrzo_nsMyTf2>>H4Vg(n2\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!\drs/downrev.xmlPKP 8B ! c $1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!\drs/downrev.xmlDAO0 Hȓt;@UMhh* .ݐkK{"{[F׋h=+M ĭז;m "&dgRp+i:M8V4TR֐8q}p:(C9@kCaSݤrzo_nsMyTf2>>H4Vg(n2\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!\drs/downrev.xmlPKV8B " c $1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, 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"&dgRp+i:M8V4TR֐8q}p:(C9@kCaSݤrzo_nsMyTf2>>H4Vg(n2\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!\drs/downrev.xmlPKV8B % c $1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!\drs/downrev.xmlDAO0 Hȓt;@UMhh* .ݐkK{"{[F׋h=+M ĭז;m "&dgRp+i:M8V4TR֐8q}p:(C9@kCaSݤrzo_nsMyTf2>>H4Vg(n2\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!\drs/downrev.xmlPKP 8B & c $1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!\drs/downrev.xmlDAO0 Hȓt;@UMhh* .ݐkK{"{[F׋h=+M ĭז;m "&dgRp+i:M8V4TR֐8q}p:(C9@kCaSݤrzo_nsMyTf2>>H4Vg(n2\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!\drs/downrev.xmlPKVPV 8B ' c $1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!\drs/downrev.xmlDAO0 Hȓt;@UMhh* .ݐkK{"{[F׋h=+M ĭז;m "&dgRp+i:M8V4TR֐8q}p:(C9@kCaSݤrzo_nsMyTf2>>H4Vg(n2\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!\drs/downrev.xmlPKPVP8B ( c $1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!\drs/downrev.xmlDAO0 Hȓt;@UMhh* .ݐkK{"{[F׋h=+M ĭז;m "&dgRp+i:M8V4TR֐8q}p:(C9@kCaSݤrzo_nsMyTf2>>H4Vg(n2\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!\drs/downrev.xmlPK V  ) T/?Rectangle 4 GK X___PPT1080___PPT9xp " Mean dependent variable 58.31939 S.D. dependent var. 12.51822 Sum squared resid. 1261.924 S.E. of regression 3.152207 R-squared 0.938055 Adjusted R-squared 0.936592 Long-run variance 29.80132 Durbin-Watson 0.851448E Dc C Bc  C  Cc C @c C VD B C A  33y___PPT10Y+D=' = @B +": NF.(  5   xM/0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}   i5. Conclusion (1/3)   ?  HM/?Rectangle 3" PK![Content_Types].xmlJ0*miG]`Hm6 Xwt?. g#Wi3E).+7 >ON ޑ1ˋz "+R RhB.} /<^ITխ%rHK4uK~I0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WLǬ5vPK!rB kdrs/shapexml.xml]R6LA'?$2ǜ!3--{d%,}>Iw%L`vaZ˫]}ZI?Y%1[JGS34ԭǿ\sJzQ}&yfO2Mzܿ?T:Nm/2Jް?%"RRY6՘[N5qD>0pKv{ 3:OW4!Կ a) SIxn2WMw=Gp-&B+` j;C#58#sb"W<:9:8b?9,b isL_ÂdJaX. Hɗ4nrBI<$vꌆ|a m~V3&3j^:lЗܯK1\N C~ISf*ZfEVPaZJLaʃFOnbZ4o%|O&B/WC+Gk4?:pNuZnY3= #h"N)] Su:!pfD{ 3O9-ۣw--ΉݦáD vu֋B A]~| ~uće_ae7%6ohF( }rr6M%)@?QmB ppt_c='`B@BPB<*{D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*{%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*{bD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*{b%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*bD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*b%(+8+0+ +"[": (  5   x`M/0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}   i5. Conclusion (2/3)   ?  H M/?Rectangle 3"jdPK![Content_Types].xmlJ0*miG]`Hm6 Xwt?. g#Wi3E).+7 >ON ޑ1ˋz "+R RhB.} /<^ITխ%rHK4uK~I0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WLǬ5vPK!ء\jdrs/shapexml.xmln6EXeM{H #ΞZ)cgIRl_ڮEQ(@9 OR0:}ΤNMV藄~y3 I?]j*ͪz_z=R}x/J'7'R_Ô,%)e3>LS>(.y!u混f aB\;.eVaG0m^1ּJ9snwGN-~6kocܖzE 4yΰx0bvpk4~'Ln=K5Ng)4d<ŌY\^Z_*%: *^*X!#h)%)v; iW_X2++}Hhp9pڨp/t~hʢ8d$wl`xEcxзvEh,nLClZ$J=WԳ~n2?E1Uh5nr#սO۰e}/c)TR\ob31VC9%f񂈯eQ_g R_|^2# |gp]'\XS HE8[Ì~*Pk* M*O¯ PfnɃ֣ՕNI,E;QcUdTB0!O~뉖s&:]rMfj9J"ߕB)bGN:RGưkLG74M t:#32-#/l!W{J;"]y%PY--gwmؽ |0'pk❮ԊUah m?n/to=T߰-]5t!]aQ=Mr;J;J;Jϣ*Py(5QPbaRl.Pw4Wڈw7!Gſf~6 7MPK!bKm&drs/downrev.xmlDMO0DHkQҺCp@޶ƉבmcqhFoѵ' qMV IÁ",Gs,xE:Y! PRƲ&q;U>8L9+M!]+/J ;Z; ns샻?*Vj}z2@$^_z1 >4f1QАݲiPK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!1_a ._rels/.relsPK-!ء\j)drs/shapexml.xmlPK-!bKm&Vdrs/downrev.xmlPKY,$o+ This result hinges on a portfolio balance effect on banks. After sterilization, the share of bonds, vis--vis loans, increase in banks assets. Given imperfect substitution between loans and bonds, the higher bond share requires a higher relative yield on bonds. Since sterilization keeps the interest rate (the return on bonds) constant, the loan rate has to fall. With the fall of the loan rate, loan demand (and supply) increases, increasing output. , CC  ? 33,$___PPT10.+qqD' = @B D_' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*;D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*;%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*;D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*;%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*nD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*n%(D~' =%(D&' =%(D' =ABBB@B0B%(E5' =1B B`BPB,54*3>B ppt_c='`B@BPB<*nD' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*n%(+8+0+ +": { s [ (  5   xжo/0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}   i5. Conclusion (3/3)   ?  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