A Preferred-Habitat Model of Term Premia, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy Spillovers

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Ray, Walker; Vayanos, Dimitri

doi:10.1257/aer.20220379

Abstract

We develop a two-country model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles, and segmentation is partly overcome by arbitrageurs with limited capital. Risk premia in our model are time-varying, connected across markets, and consistent with the empirical violations of Uncovered Interest Parity and Expectations Hypothesis. Through risk premia, largescale bond purchases lower domestic and foreign bond yields and depreciate the currency, and short-rate cuts lower foreign yields, with smaller effects than bond purchases. Currency returns are disconnected from long-maturity bond returns, and yet the currency market is instrumental in transmitting bond demand shocks across countries.

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