蝌蚪网 Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Import Liberalization as Export Destruction? Evidence from the United States
蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics
(pp. 77–111)
Abstract
In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization reduces exports within industries by shrinking real market potential. We find this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). There was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our estimates to calibrate a quantitative model and show that scale economies are economically important for trade policy analysis. Although PNTR increased aggregate US exports relative to GDP, exports declined in the most exposed industries. US gains from PNTR are positive but 30 percent smaller than under constant returns.Citation
Breinlich, Holger, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy, and Thomas Sampson. 2026. "Import Liberalization as Export Destruction? Evidence from the United States." 蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics 18 (3): 77–111. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20230213Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D24 Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- F13 Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
- O19 International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
- P33 Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid