蝌蚪网 Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Did the United States Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?
蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics
(pp. 112–35)
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951 on the US public debt/GDP ratio. We find that with the primary budget balance and without distortions in real interest rates caused by surprise inflation and the pre-Accord peg, debt/GDP would have declined only from 106 percent in 1946 to 74 percent in 1974, not to 23 percent as in actual history. Our findings imply that, over the last 76 years, only a small amount of debt reduction has been achieved through growth rates that exceed undistorted interest rates.Citation
Acalin, Julien, and Laurence Ball. 2026. "Did the United States Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?" 蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics 18 (3): 112–35. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20230357Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E43 Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E65 Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- H61 National Budget; Budget Systems
- H63 National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- N12 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: 1913-