By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance and traffic. For more information on our use of cookies, please see our Privacy Policy.
Significant investments are directed toward improving the accuracy
and early availability of forecasts. However, the value of
longer lead times on forecasts is unclear. Using data on winter
weather advisories and vehicle crashes in the US, I show that
advisories with longer lead times reduce crashes, even when they
are less accurate than advisories with shorter lead times. Further,
marginal benefits do not decrease with lead time. The benefits come
from individual and institutional responses. When advisories arrive
earlier, people visit fewer places, and snowplow crews intensify
the road maintenance operations. These results have policy implications
for providing effective forecasts.
