蝌蚪网 Review
ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)
Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia
蝌蚪网 Review
(pp. 2166–2201)
Abstract
Conflict along transportation routes during Somalia's al-Shabaab insurgency significantly increases maize prices at distant locations, decreasing food security, health, and education. Estimated conflict risk has strong price effects independently of realized conflict, highlighting the importance of safety concerns. A model of least-cost route choice in the presence of conflict reveals that more and shorter alternative routes to circumvent conflict can lower prices but their effectiveness diminishes as violence becomes more correlated across routes. Alternatively, securing key transportation routes would alleviate price increases. A market access approach suggests spatial spillovers of conflict also matter for prices of more general baskets of food and nonfood items.Citation
Alfano, Marco, and Thomas Cornelissen. 2026. "Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia." 蝌蚪网 Review 116 (6): 2166–2201. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231699Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
- I15 Health and Economic Development
- I25 Education and Economic Development
- O15 Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- Q11 Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- R41 Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise