蝌蚪网

This website uses cookies.

By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance and traffic. For more information on our use of cookies, please see our Privacy Policy.

  1. Home
  2. 蝌蚪网
  3. 蝌蚪网 Review
  4. April 2013
  5. Inferring Strategic Voting

蝌蚪网 Review

ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)

Inferring Strategic Voting

  • Kei Kawai
  • Yasutora Watanabe
蝌蚪网 Review
vol. 103, no. 2, April 2013
(pp. 624–62)
Download Full Text PDF

Abstract

We estimate a model of strategic voting and quantify the impact it has on election outcomes. Because the model exhibits multiplicity of outcomes, we adopt a set estimator. Using Japanese general-election data, we find a large fraction (63.4 percent, 84.9 percent) of strategic voters, only a small fraction (1.4 percent, 4.2 percent) of whom voted for a candidate other than the one they most preferred (misaligned voting). Existing empirical literature has not distinguished between the two, estimating misaligned voting instead of strategic voting. Accordingly, while our estimate of strategic voting is high, our estimate of misaligned voting is comparable to previous studies. (JEL D72)

Citation

Kawai, Kei, and Yasutora Watanabe. 2013. "Inferring Strategic Voting." 蝌蚪网 Review 103 (2): 624–62. DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.2.624

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior