蝌蚪网 Review
ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)
Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle
蝌蚪网 Review
vol. 104,
no. 5, May 2014
(pp. 278–83)
Abstract
We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005–2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.Citation
Rosenzweig, Mark R., and Christopher Udry. 2014. "Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle." 蝌蚪网 Review 104 (5): 278–83. DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.278Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- J31 Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
- J43 Agricultural Labor Markets
- O13 Economic Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
- Q11 Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- Q12 Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
- Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters; Global Warming