蝌蚪网 Review
ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)
Work from Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse
蝌蚪网 Review
(pp. 674–709)
Abstract
We show remote work led to large drops in lease revenues, occupancy, and market rents in the commercial office sector. We revalue New York City office buildings, taking into account both the cash flow and discount rate implications of these shocks, and find a 46 percent decline in long-run value. For all US office markets combined, we find a $556.8 billion value destruction. Higher-quality buildings were buffered against these trends due to a flight to quality, while lower-quality offices are at risk of becoming a stranded asset. These valuation changes have repercussions for financial stability and local public finances.Citation
Gupta, Arpit, Vrinda Mittal, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. 2026. "Work from Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse." 蝌蚪网 Review 116 (2): 674–709. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231619Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G12 Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- J22 Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- M51 Personnel Economics: Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
- R33 Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets