蝌蚪网 Review
ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)
Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment
蝌蚪网 Review
vol. 115,
no. 7, July 2025
(pp. 2267–2305)
Abstract
We conduct a field experiment with US households to study how expectations about long-run home price growth shape spending decisions. We exogenously vary survey respondents' expectations by providing different expert forecasts. Homeowners' spending, measured using rich home-scanner data, is inelastic to home price expectations. By contrast, renters reduce their spending when expecting higher home price growth. These patterns reflect positive wealth effects for owners from higher future wealth and negative income effects for both groups due to higher future housing costs. Our study highlights consequences of asset price growth and long-term expectations about the economy for household behavior.Citation
Chopra, Felix, Christopher Roth, and Johannes Wohlfart. 2025. "Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment." 蝌蚪网 Review 115 (7): 2267–2305. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20240022Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C93 Field Experiments
- D12 Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D84 Expectations; Speculations
- D91 Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
- G51 Household Finance: Household Saving, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
- R31 Housing Supply and Markets