òòò½Íø Review
ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)
The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory
òòò½Íø Review
(pp. 4243–81)
Abstract
We study the causal effects of global supply chain disruptions by constructing a new index of real-time port congestion using Automatic Identification System data from container ships and a spatial clustering algorithm. We develop a model with search frictions between producers and retailers that links upstream production slack to downstream supply shortages and captures output and price responses to supply chain shocks. The co-movements of output, prices, spare capacity, and market tightness provide novel identification restrictions. We find that demand and supply shocks drove US disinflation in 2020, while the inflation surge in 2021 was driven mainly by supply chain shocks.Citation
Bai, Xiwen, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yiliang Li, and Francesco Zanetti. 2026. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory." òòò½Íø Review 116 (11): 4243–81. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20250081Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C43 Index Numbers and Aggregation; leading indicators
- E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
- F23 Multinational Firms; International Business
- L14 Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation; Networks
- L92 Railroads and Other Surface Transportation