蝌蚪网 Review: Insights
ISSN 2640-205X (Print) | ISSN 2640-2068 (Online)
Real Effects of Markets on Politics: Evidence from US Presidential Elections
蝌蚪网 Review: Insights
(pp. 73–88)
Abstract
Despite the economic importance of the US stock market, there is strikingly little evidence of its impact on elections. Using county-level variation in stock market participation, we document the impact of market returns on election outcomes. High-participation counties are more likely to vote for the incumbent party when the market has performed well relative to low-participation counties. Our findings provide evidence of a novel channel through which stock market fluctuations could be transmitted into the real economy.Citation
Crane, Alan D., Andrew Koch, and Leming Lin. 2024. "Real Effects of Markets on Politics: Evidence from US Presidential Elections." 蝌蚪网 Review: Insights 6 (1): 73–88. DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20220240Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- G12 Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G35 Payout Policy
- G41 Behavioral Finance: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets [Neurofinance]
- G51 Household Finance: Household Saving, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth