òòò½Íø Journal:
Applied Economics
ISSN 1945-7782 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7790 (Online)
The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery
òòò½Íø Journal: Applied Economics
(pp. 43–82)
Abstract
US firms hiring foreign workers in low-skill nonfarm jobs face a binding quota on the "H-2B" visa, allocated in part through a randomized lottery. We evaluate the quota's marginal impact using the lottery, a novel firm survey, and a pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously employing more H-2B workers in low-skill jobs increase production (elasticity 0.20–0.22), investment (1.5–2.1), and profits (0.15). The elasticity of substitution between H-2B and US workers is very low (0.8–2.2). Thus, the effect on US employment is zero or positive overall, and positive in rural areas. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor.Citation
Clemens, Michael A., and Ethan G. Lewis. 2026. "The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery." òòò½Íø Journal: Applied Economics 18 (3): 43–82. DOI: 10.1257/app.20250049Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- J15 Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
- J24 Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- J46 Informal Labor Markets
- J61 Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
- J82 Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition
- K37 Immigration Law