蝌蚪网 Journal:
Applied Economics
ISSN 1945-7782 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7790 (Online)
Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment
蝌蚪网 Journal: Applied Economics
(pp. 215–27)
Abstract
Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)Citation
Ciccone, Antonio. 2011. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment." 蝌蚪网 Journal: Applied Economics 3 (4): 215–27. DOI: 10.1257/app.3.4.215Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- O47 Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence