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  3. Journal of Economic Perspectives
  4. Summer 1996
  5. Econometrics and Presidential Elections

Journal of Economic Perspectives

ISSN 0895-3309 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7965 (Online)

Econometrics and Presidential Elections

  • Ray C. Fair
Journal of Economic Perspectives
vol. 10, no. 3, Summer 1996
(pp. 89–102)
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Abstract

This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast.

Citation

Fair, Ray C. 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections." Journal of Economic Perspectives 10 (3): 89–102. DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.3.89

JEL Classification

  • D72 Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
  • E17 General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation