蝌蚪网 Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics
蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics
(pp. 40–76)
Abstract
To match aggregate consumption dynamics, macroeconomic models must generate "excess smoothness" in consumption expenditures. But microfounded models are calibrated to match micro data, which exhibit no "excess smoothness." So standard microfounded models fail to match the macro smoothness facts. We show that the micro and macro evidence are both consistent with a microfounded model where consumers know their personal circumstances but have "sticky expectations" about the macroeconomy. Aggregate consumption sluggishness reflects consumers' imperfect attention to aggregate shocks. Our proposed degree of inattention has negligible utility costs because aggregate shocks constitute a tiny proportion of the uncertainty that consumers face.Citation
Carroll, Christopher D., Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, Kiichi Tokuoka, and Matthew N. White. 2020. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics." 蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics 12 (3): 40–76. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180286Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- D84 Expectations; Speculations
- E21 Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity