òòò½Íø Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes
òòò½Íø Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 15,
no. 3, July 2023
(pp. 287–319)
Abstract
We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological model with time-varying parameters and use its output as information for estimating SVARs and LPs that quantify the causal effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions. We apply our approach to Belgian data for the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. We find that additional government-mandated mobility curtailments would have reduced deaths at a very small cost in terms of GDP.Citation
Arias, Jonas E., Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Juan F. Rubio-RamÃrez, and Minchul Shin. 2023. "The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes." òòò½Íø Journal: Macroeconomics 15 (3): 287–319. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210367Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- H51 National Government Expenditures and Health
- I12 Health Behavior
- I15 Health and Economic Development
- I18 Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health