蝌蚪网 Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Economic Winners versus Losers and the Unequal Pandemic Recession
蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 17,
no. 3, July 2025
(pp. 342–71)
Abstract
During the pandemic recession, firms directly exposed to the virus鈥攊.e. the "contact" sector鈥攃ontracted sharply and recovered slowly relative to the rest of the economy. Less understood is how firms that "won" by offering safer substitutes for contact sector goods have affected this unequal downturn. Using both firm and industry data, we first construct disaggregated measures of revenue growth that distinguish between contact sector losers, contact sector winners, and the noncontact sector. We show that contact sector losers contracted roughly 50 percent more than the sector average, while winners grew. We then develop a model to explain the evidence.Citation
Cirelli, Fernando, and Mark Gertler. 2025. "Economic Winners versus Losers and the Unequal Pandemic Recession." 蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics 17 (3): 342–71. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220285Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E12 General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- I12 Health Behavior