蝌蚪网 Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Uncertainty Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Firm Beliefs: Evidence from a Representative Survey
蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics
(pp. 36–73)
Abstract
This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers' expected investment, employment, and production in the short and mid run. We collect novel direct firm-level measures for different types of capital and labor adjustment costs. Adjustment costs vary strongly across types and sectors. They help explain firms' reactions to the shock, which provides evidence for the relevance of real options channels. We compare the findings to DSGE and VAR results.Citation
Dibiasi, Andreas, Heiner Mikosch, and Samad Sarferaz. 2025. "Uncertainty Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Firm Beliefs: Evidence from a Representative Survey." 蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics 17 (3): 36–73. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220318Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C83 Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
- D84 Expectations; Speculations
- E22 Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
- G31 Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies; Capacity
- J23 Labor Demand