蝌蚪网 Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?
蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 17,
no. 3, July 2025
(pp. 1–35)
Abstract
We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge resulted from shocks to prices given wages. Although tight labor markets have, thus far, not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that they have a relatively more persistent effect on wage growth and inflation. Controlling inflation will, thus, ultimately require achieving a better balance of labor demand and supply.Citation
Bernanke, Ben, and Olivier Blanchard. 2025. "What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?" 蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics 17 (3): 1–35. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20230195Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E12 General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
- E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
- E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E62 Fiscal Policy
- I12 Health Behavior