蝌蚪网 Journal:
Microeconomics
ISSN 1945-7669 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7685 (Online)
Prediction: The Long and the Short of It
蝌蚪网 Journal: Microeconomics
(pp. 374–98)
(Complimentary)
Abstract
Commentators often lament forecasters' inability to provide precise predictions of the long-run behavior of complex economic and physical systems. Yet their concerns often conflate the presence of substantial long-run uncertainty with the need for long-run predictability; short-run predictions can partially substitute for long-run predictions if decision-makers can adjust their activities over time. So what is the relative importance of short- and long-run predictability? We study this question in a model of rational dynamic adjustment to a changing environment. Even if adjustment costs, discount factors, and long-run uncertainty are large, short-run predictability can be much more important than long-run predictability.Citation
Millner, Antony, and Daniel Heyen. 2021. "Prediction: The Long and the Short of It." 蝌蚪网 Journal: Microeconomics 13 (1): 374–98. DOI: 10.1257/mic.20180240Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D21 Firm Behavior: Theory
- D81 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness