蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
What Can We Learn from Sign-Restricted VARs?
蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
(pp. 471–75)
Abstract
I use a simple business cycle model to illustrate the workings and limitations of sign restrictions in structural vector autoregressions. Three lessons emerge. First, such sign-based identification is vulnerable to "shock masquerading": linear combinations of other shocks may be misidentified as the shock of interest. Second, since the popular Haar prior automatically overweights more volatile shocks, the implied posterior is decisively shaped by relative shock volatilities鈥攁 feature of shocks that has nothing to do with their dynamic causal effects. Third, sign restrictions on structural elasticities鈥攔ather than just the usual restrictions on impulse responses鈥攃an be highly informative.Citation
Wolf, Christian K. 2022. "What Can We Learn from Sign-Restricted VARs?" 蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings 112: 471–75. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20221045Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C32 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- E13 General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles