蝌蚪网 Journal:
Economic Policy
ISSN 1945-7731 (Print) | ISSN 1945-774X (Online)
Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany
蝌蚪网 Journal: Economic Policy
vol. 17,
no. 3, August 2025
(pp. 407–40)
Abstract
We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative fur Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties鈥攖he AfD in particular鈥攁djust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multiparty democratic system.Citation
Sabet, Navid, Marius Liebald, and Guido Friebel. 2025. "Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany." 蝌蚪网 Journal: Economic Policy 17 (3): 407–40. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20230615Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
- K42 Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law