蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Labor Market: State-Level Evidence
蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
vol. 115,
May 2025
(pp. 172–76)
Abstract
This paper provides US state-level evidence regarding the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the labor market. We show that a higher exposure to trade policy uncertainty generates a contraction in total hours worked at the state level. The extensive margin of labor is the primary margin of employment adjustment. State-level employment is more strongly impacted by trade policy uncertainty in goods-producing industries, and more particularly in the durable goods industry. States that are more specialized in goods industries, when they face higher uncertainty, tend to postpone hiring by more, which explains the drop in total employment.Citation
Poilly, C茅line, and Fabien Tripier. 2025. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Labor Market: State-Level Evidence." 蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings 115: 172–76. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20251009Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- F13 Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
- F16 Trade and Labor Market Interactions
- J22 Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- R12 Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
- R23 Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics