蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
The Accuracy of Firms' Wage Inflation Expectations
蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
vol. 115,
May 2025
(pp. 261–65)
Abstract
Much of recent survey-based macroeconomic research studies firms' aggregate price inflation expectations, but little is known about their expectations of own wage inflation. This paper examines the accuracy of wage inflation expectations using novel panel survey data from German firms. By comparing forecast errors for firms' own wage inflation and consumer price index inflation, we show that wage forecasts tend to be more accurate, and forecast errors for the two variables are positively correlated. Moreover, the analysis reveals that various firm characteristics and wage-setting factors, particularly collective bargaining agreements, predict the forecast accuracy of wage inflation.Citation
Buchheim, Lukas, Sebastian Link, and Sascha M枚hrle. 2025. "The Accuracy of Firms' Wage Inflation Expectations." 蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings 115: 261–65. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20251018Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D22 Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
- D84 Expectations; Speculations
- E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
- E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- J31 Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials