蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
Mean Reversion in Randomized Controlled Trials: Implications for Program Targeting and Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
vol. 115,
May 2025
(pp. 221–25)
Abstract
Eligibility criteria for interventions can induce an Ashenfelter Dip, and subsequent mean reversion results in improvement over time even absent the intervention. We investigate these dynamics for a food-as-medicine program to treat diabetes, where eligibility required elevated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Both treatment and control groups experienced significant improvements in HbA1c, resulting in an estimated null effect. When we predict improvement using baseline characteristics, we find that subjects who are unlikely to improve on their own appear to benefit from the program. Our findings have implications for program targeting and estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.Citation
Alsan, Marcella, John Cawley, Joseph J. Doyle, and Nicholas Skelley. 2025. "Mean Reversion in Randomized Controlled Trials: Implications for Program Targeting and Heterogeneous Treatment Effects." 蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings 115: 221–25. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20251065Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- I11 Analysis of Health Care Markets
- I12 Health Behavior
- I18 Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health