蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
Extracting Statistical Relationships from Observational Data: Predicting with Full or Partial Information
蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
vol. 115,
May 2025
(pp. 637–42)
Abstract
Decision-makers sometimes rely on past data to learn statistical relationships between variables. However, when predicting a target variable, they must adjust how they aggregate past information depending on the observables available. If agents have information on all observables, it is optimal to understand how the observables jointly predict the target, while with only one observable, they should focus on the unconditional correlation. An experiment examining this process shows that predictions that require the use of unconditional correlations are more challenging for decision-makers.Citation
Fr茅chette, Guillaume R., Emanuel Vespa, and Sevgi Yuksel. 2025. "Extracting Statistical Relationships from Observational Data: Predicting with Full or Partial Information." 蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings 115: 637–42. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20251108Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D82 Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness