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  4. May 2025
  5. Real and Assumed Information

蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings

ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)

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Real and Assumed Information

  • Ned Augenblick
  • Matthew Backus
  • Andrew T. Little
  • Don A. Moore
蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings
vol. 115, May 2025
(pp. 643–47)
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Abstract

We consider a simplified version of the model in Augenblick et. al (2025), in which people use models to translate data into beliefs and predictions. We posit that they make correct inferences given a model but not unconditionally, forgetting model uncertainty, and demonstrate two implications: first, that new information can decrease confidence rather than increase it, if it prompts reconsideration of assumed models; second, that people with models may misunderstand what kind of information is persuasive to share with others.

Citation

Augenblick, Ned, Matthew Backus, Andrew T. Little, and Don A. Moore. 2025. "Real and Assumed Information." 蝌蚪网 Papers and Proceedings 115: 643–47. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20251109

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness