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Origins of US Inflation

By Christopher A. Sims

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Measuring fiscal pressure on inflation by the ratio of the primary deficit to the outstanding federal debt, this paper traces its growth through the 1970s, along with the shifts in the politics of deficits. There are thought-provoking parallels to the pan...

The NY Fed DSGE Model: A Post-COVID Assessment

By Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Aidan Gleich, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, Ramya Nallamotu, and Brian Pacula

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

We document the real-time forecasting performance for output and inflation of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model since 2011. We find the DSGE's accuracy to be comparable to that of private forecasters before COVID but som...

What Do Long Data Tell Us about the Permanent Component of Inflation?

By Stephanie ³§³¦³ó³¾¾±³Ù³Ù-³Ò°ù´Ç³óé and ²Ñ²¹°ù³Ùí²Ô Uribe

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Is postwar data enough to estimate the permanent component of inflation? We find that it is not for episodes of sudden and large inflation spikes like the one observed after the COVID-19 pandemic because such episodes are rare in the prewar sample (the in...

Will Wealth Weaken Weather Wars?

By Marshall Burke, Joel Ferguson, Solomon Hsiang, and Edward Miguel

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This study estimates the moderating impact of economic development on climate-conflict linkages during 1989–2019 in Africa, the world region that in recent decades has experienced the most armed conflict. We build a spatially disaggregated dataset that ...

Social Media as an Identity Barometer: Evidence From the Russia-Ukraine War

By Serhii Abramenko, Vasily Korovkin, and Alexey Makarin

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This study investigates how social media data can be used to study shifts in identity, focusing on Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine war. We analyze VK users' reported language proficiency and the language of tweets and note a significant shift from Russi...

Refugees Are Hosted in Highly Vulnerable Communities

By C. Austin Davis, Paula ³¢Ã³±è±ð³ú-±Ê±ðñ²¹, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, and Jaya Y. Wen

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Low- and middle-income nations host 76 percent of the world's refugees. This study uses original data to explore within-country spatial variability in refugee-hosting responsibilities. We find that hosting responsibilities for the displaced Rohingya peopl...

The Intensifying Effects of Prolonged Climate Change on Conflict, 1400–1900 CE

By Murat Iyigun, Joris Mueller, and Nancy Qian

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This study uses historical conflict and weather data for the period 1400–1900 CE to investigate the long-run effects of climate change on political instability in a context that suffered extensive cooling. The results show that temperature changes have ...

Maternal Mental Health Responses to COVID-19 Shocks and Uncertainty in Rural Pakistan

By Michelle Escobar Carias, Victoria Baranov, Joanna Maselko, Pietro Biroli, and Sonia Bhalotra

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

In this paper, we investigate the association between a battery of mental health measures and experienced morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19, worry about disease risk, experienced economic shocks, and economic uncertainty about the future. We find th...

Depression, Poverty, and Economic Shocks: Evidence from India

By Manuela Angelucci and Daniel Bennett

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This paper examines the correlations between socioeconomic status, economic shocks, and depression, and how these vary by gender, in a sample of adults from India. Poverty and the exposure to negative shocks are both associated with depression. However, t...

The Economic Burden of Dementia in India

By Marco Angrisani, Maria Casanova, Jinkook Lee, and Erik Meijer

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This paper provides the first estimate of the economic cost borne by Indian individuals living with dementia and their families based on nationally and state-wise representative data from the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI). We found that the ann...

Air Pollution and Mental Health: Evidence from China

By Shuai Chen, Paulina Oliva, and Peng Zhang

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

We estimate the short-run effect of air pollution on mental illness. Using the China Family Panel Studies covering 12,615 urban residents during 2014–2015, we find a significantly positive effect of air pollution—instrumented by thermal inversions—o...

Auditability in School Choice

By Aram Grigoryan and Markus ²Ñö±ô±ô±ð°ù

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

In centralized public school admissions, participants may not fully observe other participants' preference rankings and priorities. In this paper, we evaluate prominent assignment rules in terms of their auditability properties. We show that Serial Dictat...

Diversity Balance in Centralized Public School Admissions

By Atila ´¡²ú»å³Ü±ô°ì²¹»å¾±°ù´ÇÄŸ±ô³Ü and Aram Grigoryan

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Parental choice over public schools has become a major educational reform throughout the United States and the world. Most district policies are implemented via admission priorities. Diversity in admissions is a common policy goal. However, it necessitate...

Exorbitant Privilege and the Sustainability of US Public Debt

By Jason Choi, Duong Dang, Rishabh Kirpalani, and Diego J. Perez

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

We study the extent to which the perceived cost of losing the exorbitant privilege the United States holds in global safe asset markets sustains its public debt safety. Our findings indicate that losing this special status in the event of a default signif...

Borrowing from China and Sovereign Credit Risk

By Illenin Kondo, Astghik Mkhitaryan, and °äé²õ²¹°ù Sosa-Padilla

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

China's lending to developing nations has surged since the mid–2000s, making it these nations' largest official creditor. Contracts frequently feature unique terms, indicating China's substantial privileges as a lender. However, other lenders are also i...

Global Spillovers from Fed Hikes and a Strong Dollar: The Risk Channel

By ´³´Ç²õé Cristi, ½¢±ð²ú²Ô±ð³¾ °­²¹±ô±ð³¾±ô¾±-Ö³ú³¦²¹²Ô, Mariana Sans, and Filiz Unsal

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

We study the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks and a strong US dollar. We show that monetary tightening is linked to a higher risk premium, only in emerging markets, measured by deviations from uncovered interest parity. An appreciat...

Comparative Advantage of Humans versus AI in the Long Tail

By Nikhil Agarwal, Ray Huang, Alex Moehring, Pranav Rajpurkar, Tobias Salz, and Feiyang Yu

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Machine learning algorithms now exceed human performance on several predictive tasks, generating concerns about widespread job displacement. However, supervised learning approaches rely on large amounts of high-quality labeled data and are designed for sp...

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Algorithms

By Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Ashesh Rambachan

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

We calculate the social return on algorithmic interventions (specifically, their marginal value of public funds (MVPF)) across multiple domains of interest to economists—regulation, criminal justice, medicine, and education. Though these algorithms are ...

Algorithmic Fairness and Social Welfare

By Annie Liang and Jay Lu

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

What constitutes a fair algorithm? In the literature on algorithmic fairness, a common approach is to formulate fairness concerns as statistical constraints and to select the most accurate algorithm satisfying this constraint. This approach is facially di...

Algorithmic Recommendations When the Stakes Are High: Evidence from Judicial Elections

By Victoria Angelova, Will Dobbie, and Crystal S. Yang

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

We ask whether increased public scrutiny leads to the more effective use of predictive algorithms. We focus on the context of bail, where judges face heightened public scrutiny during competitive partisan elections. We find that judges up for reelection a...