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The Evolution of Black-White Differences in Occupational Mobility Across Post-Civil War America

By Steven Durlauf, Gueyon Kim, Dohyeon Lee, and Xi Song

蝌蚪网 Journal: Applied Economics

We examine long-run differences in intergenerational occupational mobility between Black and White Americans using linked censuses and survey data from 1850 to 2021. We document two main results. First, shifts in mobility dynamics, most notably for the...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20240816

Front Matter

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.18.3.i

Resource Misallocation in European Firms: The Role of Constraints, Firm Characteristics, and Managerial Decisions

By Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Debora Revoltella, Jan Svejnar, and Christoph T. Weiss

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

Using a new survey, we document high dispersion of marginal revenue products across firms in the European Union. To interpret this dispersion, we develop a highly portable framework to quantify gains from better allocation of resources. We demonstrate tha...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20210220

TFPR: Dispersion and Cyclicality

By Russell Cooper and Ozgen Ozturk

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

This paper studies the dispersion and cyclicality of TFPR. Recent business cycle models assume countercyclical dispersion in TFPQ based on evidence of countercyclical dispersion in TFPR, though TFPR reflects endogenous prices. An overlapping generations m...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20220264

Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements

By Taeyoung Doh, Dongho Song, and Shu-Kuei Yang

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

We propose a text-based measure of monetary policy stance that models FOMC statements as convex combinations of dovish and hawkish alternatives, providing a tractable representation of the Committee's position along the policy spectrum. Leveraging staff-d...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20220312

Self-Fulfilling Prophecies in the Transition to Clean Technology

By Sjak Smulders and Sophie Zhou

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

Technological lock-in has been a standard explanation for the slow take-off of clean innovation, but is hard to reconcile with forward-looking investors who anticipate the eventual switch to clean technologies. We provide an alternative explanation: strat...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20220316

The Economic Consequences of Effective Carbon Taxes

By Felix Kapfhammer

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

This paper studies the sectoral and macroeconomic consequences of carbon taxes in four Nordic countries using a novel monthly measure of effective carbon tax rates. The suggested measure accounts for the time-varying emission coverage of taxes that are bo...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20230083

Import Liberalization as Export Destruction? Evidence from the United States

By Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy, and Thomas Sampson

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization reduces exports within industries by shrinking real market potential. We find this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations w...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20230213

Selection, Structural Transformation, and the Cost Disease of Services

By Martin Shu

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

Labor productivity growth in the service sector may be mismeasured if workers with heterogeneous skills self-select into sectors. I document with US data that workers reallocated from manufacturing earn more than incumbent workers in professional services...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20230241

An Analytical Model of Behavior and Policy in an Epidemic

By Lukasz Rachel

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

This paper examines the behavior of individuals susceptible to a deadly disease in a tractable equilibrium setting. We analytically characterize individually optimal mitigation behavior and the resulting equilibrium trajectory. Analysis is facilitated by ...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20230299

Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications

By Ruixue Jia, Xiao Ma, and Victoria Wenxin Xie

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

Using county-level and zip-code-level data from the United States during the period 1998鈥�2018, we document: (i) Increased flood risk has a large negative impact on firm entry, employment, and output in the long run; (ii) Flood events reduce output in th...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20230356

Did the United States Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?

By Julien Acalin and Laurence Ball

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

This paper examines the effects of primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951 on the US public debt/GDP ratio. We find that with the primary budget balance and without distortions in real...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20230357

The Life Cycle Implications of Temporary Employment Contracts

By Rosemary Kaiser

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

Employment protections often create two-tiered labor markets with substantial differences in job security. I estimate the effects of removing these protections using a quantitative life cycle model, where younger workers are more likely to select into pre...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20230376

University Research and the Market for Higher Education

By Titan Alon, Damien Capelle, and Kazushige Matsuda

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

This paper develops a framework in which university research depends endogenously on competition for tuition and talented students in the market for higher education. When students are highly stratified across colleges, or when tuition rises sharply with ...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20240057

Central Banks as Dollar Lenders of Last Resort: Implications for Regulation and Reserve Holdings

By Mitali Das, Gita Gopinath, Helene Hall, Taehoon Kim, and Jeremy C. Stein

蝌蚪网 Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2026

We explore how foreign central banks behave when firms engage in currency mismatch, borrowing heavily in dollars. A central bank can deal with risky private-sector mismatch in two ways: (i) with financial regulation or (ii) by accumulating reserves to bet...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20240107

Inverse Selection

By Markus K. Brunnermeier, Rohit Lamba, and Carlos Segura-Rodriguez

蝌蚪网 Review: Insights

Big data and AI invert classical adverse selection: insurers can now infer statistical correlations that consumers cannot, overturning the traditional informational advantage. We study insurance contracting where a two-dimensional state determines risk,...

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aeri.20250418