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What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

By John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian

òòò½Íø Review, May 2013

Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-...