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HANK: A New Core of Usable Macroeconomics

By Adrien Auclert

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

I argue that heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) models are a natural contender to define a new core of usable macroeconomics, replacing the IS-LM/Mundell-Fleming paradigm prevailing after the 1960s and the New Keynesian paradigm prevailing after the...

Practical Stabilization Policy in the Twenty-First Century

By Martin Eichenbaum

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

In 1997, the òòò½Íø convened a panel to address whether a core of usable macroeconomics exists. The consensus about monetary policy has not changed since then. However, in a sharp reversal, there is now widespread consensus that fis...

The Evolving Core of Usable Macroeconomics for Policymakers

By Jonas Fisher, Bart Hobijn, and Alessandro T. Villa

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Macroeconomic models and policymakers' language have evolved significantly. Today's policy discussions center on New Keynesian (NK) synthesis, which builds on the neoclassical growth model and the AS-AD framework. It incorporates nominal and real rigiditi...

Heterogeneous Agent Models

By ´¡²âÅŸ±ð Ä°³¾°ù´Ç³ó´Ç°ù´ÇÄŸ±ô³Ü

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Heterogeneous agent models have become central to modern macroeconomic research, often replacing the representative agent framework. However, what is core for these frameworks is the use of microfoundations that involve optimizing behavior. The strength o...

Economics in the Age of Algorithms

By Sendhil Mullainathan

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

The rise of algorithms, particularly machine learning, does more than impact the economy. These tools offer new empirical methods. They enable new kinds of interventions. And foundational theories must be changed to account for them. Economics is, at its ...

Root Causes of the Racial Wealth Gap: A Critique of the Fed View

By William A. Darity Jr. and Stephan Lefebvre

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We address the Federal Reserve's model for Black–White wealth inequality. The Fed view has it that the Black–White wealth gap, when measured with an "expanded wealth concept," is smaller than previously thought and primarily explained by income differ...

Labor Market Shocks and Immigration Enforcement

By Sergio Barrera, Brianna Felegi, and Sarina Heron

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We study the effects of labor market shocks on immigration enforcement by evaluating the impact of the Great Recession on the likelihood that commuting zones partner with immigration authorities through 287(g) agreements and early adoption of Secure Commu...

The Racial Dynamics of US Neighborhoods and Their Housing Prices from 1950 through 1990

By Daniel Hartley, Jonathan Rose, and Becky Schneirov

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

In this paper, we use k-medians clustering to categorize urban neighborhoods according to the evolution of their Black population share from 1950 through 1990. We use the resulting classifications to compare the dynamics of median home values and...

Are Loans to Minority-Owned Firms Mispriced?

By William D. Bradford, Chunbei Wang, Magnus Lofstrom, and Michael Verchot

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

We use survey data on small business loans granted in 2022 and 2023 to explore racial disparities in the terms of loans to small firms. Similar data have not been available since the 2003 Survey of Small Business Finances. We find that for Hispanic-, Asia...

Agglomeration Spillovers from Native Nations: Evidence from Casino Reopenings

By Matthew T. Gregg, Alice Tianbo Zhang, and Elliot Charette

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Gaming establishments provide a significant source of revenue for tribal governments, but little is known about the impact of such large investments outside of reservations. Using high-frequency data from millions of mobile devices and the differential re...

Can Incorrect Beliefs about the Racial Composition of Welfare and Unemployment Insurance Beneficiaries Be Changed?

By Jeffrey Carpenter, Jakina Debnam Guzman, Peter Hans Matthews, and Erin L. Wolcott

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Some argue that support for the social safety net in the United States is influenced by beliefs about the beneficiaries' race. Information treatments have the potential to change these beliefs, but for them to be policy relevant, their effects must last b...

Immigrant Age at Arrival and the Intergenerational Transmission of Ethnic Identification among Mexican Americans

By Brian Duncan and Stephen J. Trejo

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Analyzing microdata from the 2000 US census and the 2001–2019 American Community Surveys, we show that the age at arrival of Mexican immigrants exerts an important influence on ethnic identification not only for these immigrants but also for their US-bo...

Cross-Policy Effects: Lockdown Stringency, Race, and the COVID-19 Vaccine in US Nursing Homes

By Roland Pongou, Ghislain Junior Sidie, Guy Tchuente, and Jean-Baptiste Tondji

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

In a health crisis, how do early mitigation policies affect the effectiveness of later interventions? Using the lens of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, we show that the stringency of early public health and safety interventions increased vacci...

The Impact of Air Pollution and Information Access on Women's Fertility Decisions: Evidence from Thailand

By Pasita Chaijaroen and Pallavi Panda

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Despite increased exposure to air pollution concentration (PM2.5) and access to information, household fertility response to climate anxiety remains understudied in developing countries. To assess if individuals actively increase information ga...

The Impact of Cash after Childbirth on Crime: Evidence from a Discontinuity in Tax Benefits

By Sakshi Bhardwaj

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper examines the causal impact of additional income provided to low-income families shortly after childbirth on mothers' criminal justice involvement. Using a regression discontinuity design based on year-end births, where children born before Dece...

Learning from Job Offers about Labor Supply Constraints: A Barrier for Women without Work Experience

By Lisa Ho, Suhani Jalota, and Anahita Karandikar

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

Labor market surveys often include individuals outside the workforce, but respondents who lack work experience may have inaccurate beliefs about their labor supply preferences and constraints. Using data from an incentivized job preferences elicitation in...

Long-Run Intergenerational Impact of Abortion Legalization in the United States

By Sherajum Monira Farin

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

In this study, I analyze how children conceived under legal abortion fare in life, particularly in terms of life term health. I leverage the state-level variation in changes to abortion laws predating Roe v. Wade and the changes brought about by

Filling the Gaps: Childcare Laws for Women's Economic Empowerment

By S Anukriti, Lelys Dinarte-Diaz, Maria Montoya-Aguirre, and Alena Sakhonchik

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper investigates the effects of legislation governing the availability, affordability, or quality of center-based childcare services on women's labor market outcomes around the world. Using a difference-in-difference design, we find that childcare ...

Breadwinning, Social Security, and Retirement Patterns among Couples

By Siha Lee and Zhixiu Yu

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

This paper examines how married couples' retirement behavior varies by wives' earnings contributions. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study linked to administrative Social Security records, we find that breadwinner wives are more likely to delay...

Parental Time Allocation and Gender Disparities: The Role of Child Tax Credit Reform

By Tennecia Dacass, Elif B. Dilden, and Yang Jiao

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2025

The Child Tax Credit (CTC) plays a critical role in reducing child poverty and promoting parental workforce participation. However, its effects on how parents allocate their time remain insufficiently studied. This research fills this gap by analyzing the...