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Global Financial Cycles and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Perspective from Emerging Markets

By Maurice Obstfeld, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Mahvash S. Qureshi

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little relevance in the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic conditions. Our findings suggest that exchange rate regimes do matter, at least for...

What Can UWE Do for Economics?

By Tatyana Avilova and Claudia Goldin

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Men outnumber women as undergraduate economics majors by three to one nationwide. Even at the best research universities and liberal arts colleges men outnumber women by two to one or more. The Undergraduate Women in Economics Challenge began in 2015 as a...

The Disappearing Large-Firm Wage Premium

By Nicholas Bloom, Fatih Guvenen, Benjamin S. Smith, Jae Song, and Till von Wachter

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Large firms have paid significantly higher wages for over a century. Based on administrative data we document that the large-firm wage premium (LFWP) has declined steadily over the last 30 years. Decomposing pay into worker and firm fixed effects, we then...

Nonlinear Persistence and Partial Insurance: Income and Consumption Dynamics in the PSID

By Manuel Arellano, Richard Blundell, and Stephane Bonhomme

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

In this paper we highlight the importance of the PSID in understanding income dynamics and consumption insurance. We explore the nonlinear nature of income shocks and describe a new quantile-based panel data framework for income dynamics. In this approach...

A Dialogue between a Populist and an Economist

By Tito Boeri, Prachi Mishra, Chris Papageorgiou, and Antonio Spilimbergo

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

In this imaginary dialogue, a populist and an economist discuss the role of economic shocks to explain populism. A simple correlation between economic shocks and populism is weak. However, economic shocks can explain well the phenomenon of populism in cou...

Misperceptions about Tax Audits

By Marcelo µþé°ù²µ´Ç±ô´Ç, Rodrigo Ceni, Guillermo Cruces, Matias Giaccobasso, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

For some entities, the utility-maximizing evasion rate depends substantially on tax audit features, such as audit probabilities and penalty rates. Bergolo et al. (2017) document large misperceptions about these features. In this paper, we expand the analy...

Human Judgment and AI Pricing

By Ajay Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, and Avi Goldfarb

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

This paper examines the pricing choices of a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) services. It does so in the context of AI providing predictions to a decision-maker who also exercises what we term judgment; specifically, the discovery of payoffs from...

Dynamic Incentives in Wait List Mechanisms

By Nikhil Agarwal, Itai Ashlagi, Paulo Somaini, and Daniel Waldinger

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Many scarce public resources are allocated through wait lists that use priorities for individual agents. A new priority system for allocating deceased donor kidneys was adopted in 2014. This redesign was guided by simulations that held decision-rules fixe...