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What Drives Money Competition: Comparative Advantage in Payments versus Reserves

By Itay Goldstein, Ming Yang, and Yao Zeng

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

We study competition between monies that provide separate payment and nonpayment (e.g., store-of-value) functions. Payment adoption is governed by comparative advantage across these two functions rather than by absolute payment superiority. A money that i...

Climate Change and Long-Run Factor Shares

By Tianzi Liu, Ivan Rudik, and Zebang Xu

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

What is the long-run effect of climate change on how income is distributed between capital and labor? To answer this question, we develop an equilibrium growth model with labor- and capital-augmenting productivities that are affected by changes in tempera...

Climate Policy and the Long-Run Interest Rate: Insights from a Simple Growth Model

By Gregory Casey, Stephie Fried, and William B. Peterman

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

We study the impact of climate policy on the long-run real interest rate in a neoclassical growth model. A carbon price reduces the long-run rate only if it grows faster than at least one fossil fuel price. Consider a carbon price that grows at 5 percent ...

Natural Disaster Expectations and Household Adaptation

By Shifrah Aron-Dine

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

How do households form expectations about the risk of future natural disasters, and how do these expectations translate into household adaptation choices? A stylized model of natural disasters yields predictions that higher perceived risk should increase ...

Persistent Impacts of Improved Apprenticeship Training Quality

By Morgan Hardy, Isaac Mbiti, and Jamie McCasland

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Previous experimental research had shown that financial incentives to training providers could improve skill acquisition and earnings outcomes for trainees in an apprenticeship program in Ghana. However, it is unclear if these short-run impacts persist or...

Teacher Content Knowledge in Indian Secondary Schools and Its Relationship with Student Learning

By Sabrin Beg, Anne Fitzpatrick, Jason T. Kerwin, Adrienne Lucas, and Khandker Wahedur Rahman

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

We combine data on math and English teacher content knowledge with student test scores from secondary schools in India. We find that content knowledge is low, particularly for English. Education and experience are correlated with English content knowledge...

Beyond the Campus: Indirect Effects of University Openings in Uganda

By Tess Lallemant and Brian Dillon

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Over the last two decades, the number of higher education institutions in low- and middle-income countries has grown rapidly. In this paper we study how the opening of a university affects employment and education outcomes in small cities across Uganda. W...

The Leaky College Pipeline: Evidence from Administrative Data in Uganda

By Isaac Ahimbisibwe, Adrien Dautheville, Lenka Fiala, Saint Kizito Omala, and Wayne Aaron Sandholtz

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

We use linked administrative data from Uganda to track student progression from primary school through university scholarship admission, documenting large leaks in the education pipeline at every stage. Many high-performing students from poorer districts ...

The Adoption of Industrial AI in America

By Kristina McElheran, Mu-Jeung Yang, Zachary Kroff, and Erik Brynjolfsson

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Using a mandatory, purpose-designed Census Bureau survey of approximately 28,500 establishments, we provide new evidence on industrial AI adoption in US manufacturing. Despite widespread digitization, only 22.8 percent of plants report any AI use as of 20...

Generative AI: What Type of Technology?

By Martin Neil Baily, David M. Byrne, Aidan T. Kane, and Paul E. Soto

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

The economic effects of generative AI (genAI) will depend on the type of technology it ultimately represents. The impact on productivity growth of discrete innovations, such as the lightbulb, fades when the market saturates. General-purpose technologies (...

Aggregate Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence: A Sectoral Perspective

By Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal, and Matthias Schief

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Artificial intelligence raises productivity in specific tasks, but its aggregate impact remains debated. We project productivity gains from AI for 65 US industries and aggregate them in a multisector general-equilibrium framework, showing that AI could co...

AI as an Innovation in the Method of Innovation: Implications for Productivity Growth

By Filippo Bontadini, Carol Corrado, Jonathan Haskel, and Cecilia Jona-Lasinio

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

This paper estimates AI’s impact on labor productivity growth, treating AI as both a general-purpose technology and an innovation in the method of innovation. Using a framework that separates upstream innovation from downstream (other) production sugges...

American Investment in Chinese Renminbi

By Bruno Cavani, Christopher Clayton, Amanda Dos Santos, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

This paper uses microdata on US mutual fund and ETF portfolios from SEC Form N-PORT to study American investment in Chinese Renminbi (RMB)–denominated bonds. We show that, even as total foreign holdings of Chinese bonds rebounded in 2024, US holdings of...

Global Trade, Tariff Uncertainty, and the US Dollar

By ½¢±ð²ú²Ô±ð³¾ °­²¹±ô±ð³¾±ô¾±-Ö³ú³¦²¹²Ô, Can Soylu, and Muhammed A. ³Ûı±ô»åı°ùı³¾

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

We analyze how tariff uncertainty affects exchange rates, motivated by the US dollar’s depreciation after the 2025 tariff announcements. Standard macrotrade models predict that unilateral tariffs appreciate the implementing country’s currency, but we ...

Stablecoins and the Dollar: Historical Parallels and Future Risks

By Max Harris and Kenneth Rogoff

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Stablecoins have burst onto the scene, offering the potential for cheaper, faster, and smarter payments—perhaps even strengthened dollar dominance. Yet, for all the novel technology, stablecoins present a host of age-old risks that caution against such ...

The Mysterious Disappearance of Productivity Growth in US Manufacturing: Was It the China Shock?

By Robert J. Gordon and Kenneth Ryu

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

After registering a 3 percent annual rate from 1948 to 2010, the growth of labor productivity in US manufacturing since 2010 has come to a cold stop, with a zero 2010–2025 annual growth rate. What caused the disappearance of productivity growth in the c...

Quality Adjustment in Industry Deflators Strengthens Estimated Innovation-Productivity Relationships

By Enghin Atalay, Ali ±á´Ç°ù³Ù²¹Ã§²õ³Ü, Nicole Kimmel, and Chad Syverson

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

This article studies how industry innovation translates into subsequent productivity growth. It reviews a method that uses gaps between consumer- and producer-facing price indices to estimate mismeasurement in industry TFP growth. Measured productivity gr...

Markups and the Manufacturing Productivity Slowdown

By Benjamin Bridgman

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

This paper examines whether mismeasurement due to markups is responsible for the decline in US manufacturing productivity growth. It estimates markups using a model to estimate the user cost of capital to split capital payments into regular returns and ec...

The Productivity Paradox in US Manufacturing: A Firm- and Industry-Level Perspective

By Danial Lashkari and Jeremy Pearce

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

US manufacturing productivity growth grew rapidly in the 1987–2007 period but has been nearly zero since 2010. We decompose this productivity slowdown across industries and firms and find it to be pervasive. More specifically, it appears in the initiall...

Employment Preferences of Favela Residents

By Mayara Felix, Beatriz Marcoje, Ieda Matavelli, and Maria Clara Rodrigues

òòò½Íø Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

We document employment preferences of workers at the margin of informality using open-ended questions and discrete choice experiments in Brazil's largest favela complex. Stated preferences emphasize pay and tangible job attributes rather than meaning or p...